This is the second part of Estimating In Scrum. In Estimating In Scrum – Part 1, we looked at story points and how relative sizing is used for estimating work. We are going to take this further and discuss how using story points and velocity can be used to forecast the remainder of a Scrum project.
Velocity
Velocity is a measure of a team’s rate of progress and is used to estimate future commitments / capacity. It is measured by summing the number of points “Done” in a sprint where no ‘partial points’ are allowed – it’s either done or not done.
Average velocity is an estimate and teams should use a range to represent uncertainty. Velocity is a critical measure used for release and sprint planning. You also cannot compare one teams velocity to another team – the Team’s velocity completely relates to them.
The figure below shows an average velocity of 41 over the last 4 sprints.
Based on this empirical information, we can forecast a baseline expectation of 41 completed story points for Sprint 5. I would suggest choosing a range as the average velocity should not be considered absolute.
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